The MoneyWeek property investigation the banks,
government and estate agents don’t want you to see

Exposed just in time… the deadly property LIE that could ravage your finances in 2010

READ THIS OR LOSE £46,000

Dear Concerned Reader,

Apologies for being so blunt, but there’s no time to lose.

IF you own property – or are thinking of buying back into the property market any time soon – you should look at this chart first!

I recommend you pay close attention because it may hold the key to your finances in 2010 and beyond…

The most important chart you'll see this year!

The banks used to release this chart every month.  But in March 2006 they suddenly pulled it without a word of warning.  

They never said why they buried this information. But our guess is that they didn’t want anyone – particularly prospective customers – to discover what the chart said.

So what is it they know that we don’t? And how could this dull-looking chart affect YOUR future?

The shocking secret that could save you
£46,000 in the next 12-24 months

This chart – unofficially called the ‘Affordability Index’ – was always viewed as the KEY indicator of the health of the UK property market. Everyone listened to it. From government ministers and City investors to financial journalists and property pros.

The index measures how affordable property is by tracking the ratio between house prices and household incomes. The higher the multiple score, the less affordable property prices are. And vice versa.

Now look at the chart again...

The UK Affordability Index shows how healthy the property market is

• Any score below 4 – the long-term average of the index – is viewed as a strong ‘BUY’ signal. Put simply, that means property would be a very good investment (see 1983-1988 and 1992-2002 on the chart).

• A score of 4 to 4.5 is still a BUY sign but, if the trend is heading upwards, it’s also the first warning that the market might be about to get overheated (see 1988, 1990-1992 and 2002-2003 on the chart).

• Any score above 4.5 is a DANGER sign that property prices are out of kilter with people’s ability to pay (see 1988-1990 and 2003-2006 on the chart).

As you can see from the chart, from late 1994 to the summer of 2002 the Affordability Index was comfortably below the 4 barrier, signalling that property was a strong BUY.

People who bought on the strength of that signal, back in December 1994, would have seen a 249% return on their investment in 13 years.

But then, in mid-2002 the Affordability Index quickly burst through the crucial 4 barrier…
and then skyrocketed to record highs

That’s something the banks, the government, the estate agents and the rest of the property industry didn’t want you to see.

Because by March 2006 it showed that houses were less affordable than they’d ever been before.

It was a clear warning that the property bubble had to burst.

Sure enough, that’s what happened.  Property prices started crashing in October 2007. And people who ignored the affordability warning saw the value of their investments slashed by 21% in just 16 months.

Now fast forward to today...

Property prices have gone up for six months straight... the property ‘cheerleaders’ are banging the drum that the crash is over... that it’s time to start snapping up ‘bargain’ houses and buy-to-let flats again.  

The Express even splashed ‘House Price Slump is Over’ all over its front page.

But before you listen to the industry hype and make your next move into property, how handy would it be to use the hidden Affordability data to get an accurate indication of the state of the market?

Very handy, we reckon.

Well know this: Here at MoneyWeek, one of our most trusted City contacts has just provided us with his own complete version of the Affordability Index that’s BANG UP TO DATE.  

And the message it’s sending out is nothing like what you’re being told anywhere else 

I’ll explain the details in just a moment. But the fact is there’s no great property recovery. That’s a MYTH created by a series of dodgy data and a cartel of self-interested individuals.  

In fact, we’ve done the maths and we believe this information could make all the difference between you making a killing on the next property boom... and LOSING £46,000 in the next 12 months.

I know that sounds dire.

But in the next five minutes I’ll give you all the proof you need that buying property in 2010 is a MUG’S game...

But it isn’t all bad news, not by any means.

You see, while uninformed and gullible investors get suckered back into the housing market, a new wave of ‘below the radar’ opportunities are going to open up that promise to make you EVEN BIGGER returns than property did during the last boom.   

We’re going to reveal our 3 best investments in just a minute, including the shocking government secret that could make you a quick-fire 226%!  

And you really won’t believe how simple it is to profit.

But first look at this…

BUY PROPERTY today … and see £46,000 wiped off your assets by 2012!

Here is our updated version of the banks’ Affordability Index, revealed in public for the first time. Take a close look at where it's sitting today...

The new evidence the estate agents don't want you to see

Right now the Affordability Index score is a shockingly high 5.7 (1). And it's a long way off the 4 to 4.5 score where property only begins to look attractive.

What’s even more worrying is that since March 2009 the rise in house prices has driven the Affordability score back in the wrong direction!

No wonder the estate agents
DON’T want you to see this

Look at the chart again.

IN FACT it’s still far higher than it was at the height of the previous property boom back in 1989 (when the Affordability Index score was 5.02) when house prices went on to crash by 37%.  

Which means that…

Affordability levels are still worse than they were at the height of the last housing boom… BEFORE house prices plummeted!

And that’s disastrous news for you… IF you buy property any time soon.

But, as you’re about to see, it’s by no means the only grim property news out there. In fact, we’ve collected a dossier of evidence SCREAMING that house prices are going to crash again.

Here’s the next vital piece of information you’re not being told about…

Why the property market ‘recovery’
is a lethal red herring

You might not have heard of the economist Jean-Paul Rodrigue. Many professional investors haven’t, though many readers of MoneyWeek will be familiar with
his name.

But if the mainstream media really did their homework on the property market, he’d already be a household name.

You see Rodrigue has made a startling discovery about the way all markets – including the UK property market – operate.

And that discovery is URGING you to steer clear of this property market ‘revival’ AT ALL COSTS. 

Look at the chart below.

This chart - based on centuries of economic data -
should be stapled on EVERY smart investors' wall

Rodrigue’s model ‘Mania Tracker’ (the red line on the chart) follows the pattern of market bubbles through four distinct phases… stealth, awareness, mania and
blow off.

Now that might sound like something that only economics lecturers would get excited about… certainly not the man on the street.

But have a look at the green dotted line on the chart. This tracks the housing market during the last boom and bust, from 1982 to 1995.

As you can see, the property market followed the script closely, start to finish. First, house prices rose slowly, then they rocketed, slumped sharply, plateaued and finally started falling again.

And this is the crucial bit. The current house price crash is following the exact same path. In fact, as you can see from the blue line on the chart, it’s almost a
MIRROR IMAGE.

The parallels really are extraordinary…

• Between 1996 and 2000 we went through the ‘awareness’ phase – when smart investors spot that momentum is building behind the property market and start buying.   

• From 2000 to 2007 we went through the ‘mania’ phase – when everyone and their dog notices that prices are going up and pile in for the ‘investment opportunity of a lifetime’.

• Between 2007 and 2009 we saw the first ‘blow off’ in the markets.

Look exactly where we are now (the point where the blue line ends):

Property is currenty in the middle of the most dangerous phase of all...

Slap bang in the middle of the most dangerous phase of all…

…the ‘BULL TRAP’ phase.

This is where everything looks like it’s returning to normal… house prices are bouncing back, bullishness is back in fashion, the property pros are advising people to take advantage of these ‘bargain’ prices while they’re still available.

Sound familiar?

But in fact, it’s not a signal to buy… it’s a property market TRAP that could have a disastrous impact on your financial future…

Right now we’re walking blindly into a trap
that no one’s telling us about

Take a closer look at what happened at the same stage of the last house price crash, back in 1991…

In 1990 house prices went up in 6 separate months. The average house price was higher in December than it had been in January. Everyone in the media was convinced that the property crisis was over…

On 10 January 1991, The Times announced that ‘House price rises suggest a recovery’… on 6 March they said ‘the market has finally bottomed out’… on 13 March their headline screamed ‘House prices predicted to rise 66%’…

But people who bought into the property ‘revival’ ended up losing a FORTUNE…

Look at the facts…

Here’s how much you would have lost on average if you had bought a house in the UK in early 1991:

• 13% in just two years (£11,977)
• 19% in just five years (£16,739)

Sounds painful, doesn’t it? Well this time the consequences of buying back into the property market too soon could be even worse…

I’m talking about a negative equity nightmare that will pollute YOUR future
for years…

The last time the property market reached this stage, uninformed investors saw their assets slashed by 19%...

...in 2010 the penalty for ignoring this tell-tale DANGER sign could be even more severe

So how much further will house prices fall this time? And how long will the price crash last for?

Of course it’s impossible to say for sure. We haven’t got a crystal ball that allows us to predict exactly what will happen in the future.

But consider this…

• During the last house price crash in the 90s, the market didn’t bottom out until late 1995 when the ‘Affordability score’ stood at just 3. For affordability levels to return to those levels this time around, house prices will have to fall by another 47%...

• For the Affordability score to return to 4 – the long-term average of the Affordability Index – house prices will have to fall by another 30%...

• For the Affordability score even to pass below the crucial 4.5 barrier – when property is potentially a buy again – house prices will have to fall by another 21%...

We’re convinced that house prices are set to fall by another 20% AT LEAST…

Plunging uninformed investors into a negative equity NIGHTMARE that could last for years

Scary isn’t it? And that’s not all…

Here’s another shocking chart the property cheerleaders would rather you didn’t see.

Since the 1960s, every housing bust has lasted the exact same time as the boom that preceded it.

The last property boom lasted 11 years... the property crash only began 2 years ago.

Which means you should stop listening to the estate agents, building societies and everyone else who’s screaming for you to get back into property RIGHT AWAY because…

It could be another NINE YEARS before house prices take off again!   

Here’s exactly what you should do next…

• Homeowners - If you’ve already got a home, you’re happy there and you’re comfortable with your mortgage debt, don’t do anything. Just enjoy your home – and if you’re on a tracker mortgage enjoy the record low interest rates.

• Househunters - If you’re thinking about getting onto the ladder, or of upsizing, then I’d urge you to think again.

Just look at the figures…

The average price of all property in the UK is now £244,000. The price of the average detached house is £345,000.

If we’re right and property is set to come down by at least 20%, people who buy the average UK property now could see £46,000 wiped off their assets in the next 1 to 2 years.

And remember that’s an average figure for all property. If your house is worth £500,000, £750,000 or £1m that figure could jump to £100,000, £150,000 and £200,000.

If you’re looking for property – and you don’t have to buy – we believe the solution is obvious:

• Take advantage of the recent falls in rental prices. You’ll save money in the short term. You’ll free up the money you’d require for your 25% deposit. You’ll protect yourself from the spectre of negative equity.
  
• And you’ll be perfectly placed to grab a bargain when house prices really do bottom out.

• Best of all you’ll be able to invest in other, lucrative sectors that the smart money is piling into today.

So if not property - WHERE?

I can’t stress this enough.

There’s compelling evidence that the property bargains of today will turn out to be the reckless investments and rip-offs of tomorrow...

But while ordinary investors get sucked in by the property ‘rally’, the smart money is about to make a killing from the next wave of investment opportunities that’s set to open up.

In a moment you’ll find all the details of our top 3 investments for 2010 – including the must-have ‘crisis proof’ play that every investor should have in their portfolio this year.

But first I'll introduce myself...

I write on behalf of a financial magazine called MoneyWeek. My name is Toby Bray and I’m the publisher.

Since 2000 we’ve been scouring the financial news from across the world, drawing on our army of contacts in the City and beyond, to bring our readers bang up to date with all the very latest investment trends and opportunities.

And then we’ve told them exactly how to profit from them:

• Every week we unveil a whole range of new and profitable opportunities in a wide variety of sectors – many of which you’ll never read about elsewhere. For example, in January 2009 contributor Sam Mahtani recommended three Asian companies – China Life Insurance, State Bank of India and CNOOC Ltd. So far they are up 104%, 130% and 83%.
  
• Readers who followed our ‘Buy oil’ advice from May 2006 made a tidy 82% gain.  Then in our 14 August, 2008 cover story, 'Sell oil', we predicted that the great oil bull run was coming to an end and revealed a little-known way to profit from falling oil prices. Readers who got in banked a 230% gain in just 4 months.

  

• In March 2009 we told our readers to get into Brazilian food retailer CBD. That’s already up 175%. Battery-maker BYD and video equipment maker Tandberg – just two of our tips from May 2009 – are up 273% and 73%...

Over the last decade we have consistently provided our readers with advice and tips that have made - and saved - them money...

• We called the property crash FIRST. We saved our readers tens of thousands by warning them to get out of property in 2007 – and are now, once again, stressing to steer clear of this investment…        

  

• MoneyWeek saw the market crash coming - when no-one else had a clue. In issue 337 (#1 below) we warned our readers to get out of the markets - the exact same day the market peaked on 15th June 2007. Then urged them to stay out of the false rally that followed (#5 below).

  

Now I'd like you to benefit too

With your permission I’d like to send you the next 3 issues of MoneyWeek on a no-obligation FREE trial so you can profit from the cream of investment tips that must be acted on right now – and avoid the investment traps that uninformed investors are falling into.

And that is really what MoneyWeek is all about.

All private investors, from the most experienced to the biggest novice, face the same problem.

Every day they are confronted with a mountain of financial information, much of it contradictory. They know that somewhere in that mountain lies a gem of a tip that could make a real impact on their wealth. But it’s buried so deep that they’ll probably never find it – at least not before it becomes too well-known and tired to make them any serious gains.

To really succeed as a private investor you need to act on the right information at the right time.

And that is why MoneyWeek is such an essential service for anyone who wants to transform their wealth and standard of living...

• Every week we scour through hundreds of news sources, from the mainstream media to obscure financial websites and company reports, to bring you an unbiased, easy-to-read round-up of the best and most valuable investment advice around.
  
• Every week we interrogate an army of influential City contacts to fill you in on the very latest City news, tips and gossip, news that private investors would normally never hear about.
  
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If you’d followed the tips in just one of last year’s issues, from 15 June, you would have made gains of 66%, 93%, 43%, 26%, 74%, 30%, 27%, 39% and 84% in just 6 months. If you’d had access just to the ‘personal view’ section of our 27 March issue, you could have made an 88% gain in 4 months and gains of 68% and 175% in 9 months.

Accept my invitation to try 3 FREE issues of MoneyWeek and over the next few weeks the MoneyWeek team will show you how you can turn panic into profit...

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• And we will tell you exactly what to do to take advantage of sectors that are about to soar.

Sectors like these...

2010 PROFIT SECTOR #1: 
NINE ways to profit from the WAR on
water shortages

Why you should get into water NOW

It might not feel like it here in the UK. But the world is slap bang in the middle of a major water crisis.

We don’t have enough water to go around as it is. But the amount we use – and waste – at home, in industry and agriculture just keeps on growing. A recent study by the Stockholm International Water Institute predicts that by 2050 we’ll need 50% more water than we currently use.

When something’s in short supply – and demand is surging – there’s always a chance for smart investors to profit. And that’s precisely the case here…

To beat the water crisis, governments around the world have no choice but to pump billions of pounds into improving, extending and repairing their water infrastructure. The US alone is a looking at a water bill amounting to anything from $335 billion to $1 trillion.

That’s terrible news for politicians in Washington and beyond… but great news for an elite group of companies who are going to benefit from the new wave of MASSIVE government contracts.

The MoneyWeek team has looked at all these firms in close detail. We’ve scoured analyst reports, interrogated our City contacts, examined their balance sheets, p/e ratios, future growth earnings... And we’ve found no fewer than NINE companies that offer incredible value right now including one ingenious US company that’s got the Chinese government EATING OUT OF ITS HAND.

I'm delighted to say you can find the details of every one of them for FREE in our special report, ‘THE MONEYWEEK 2010 PROFIT PORTFOLIO’ which we'll rush to you along with your 3 FREE issues of MoneyWeek..

And, remember, that’s just the start…

2010 PROFIT SECTOR #2:
How this “Bargain Basement” economy could make you STUNNING gains

Ask your broker what he thinks of Japan and you’ll be lucky to get his time of day.

And at first glance, it might seem like he’s right.

I mean... for the last 20 years Japan has been the world’s most hated investment!

It’s had a flat-lining economy... a dire property market... and a huge slump in stocks...

But all that’s about to change.

After 20 long years of financial mismanagement, the Japanese people have finally voted for change – and elected the Democratic Party of Japan.

Nothing is certain…but it seems like the new leaders ‘get it’.

And now its ‘consumption ready’ citizens look set to invigorate this long ailing economy.

But the best thing about Japan is:

There are bargains everywhere…

Creating investment opportunities better than we’ve seen in decades!

In short, this ‘hated economy’ offers you some of the best buys you’ll see in your lifetime.

We’ll give you our hard hitting analysis up front:

• The surprising ‘Dead or Alive’ play that adds an iron-clad security to your portfolio
• 5 ‘ignored’ stocks available for knock down prices
• PLUS one special ‘elite’ listed Fund that’s set to MASSIVELY outperform its peers for the next decade

You’ll find full details in your free report ‘THE MONEYWEEK 2010 PROFIT PORTFOLIO’.

Now, some of the tips you’ll find in MoneyWeek will be fairly straightforward investments. Others will be unknown to all but the sharpest City professional.

Some of our tips will be flagged as high risk. Others will be medium or low risk. Some will be more aggressive and short term, others more defensive and long-term. It’s entirely up to you which path you take.

Here's more of what you can expect from MoneyWeek:

Every one of the tips you ever find in MoneyWeek will have the same four things
in common:

• They are painstakingly well researched.
     
• The logic behind them, and the risks involved, are explained clearly
  and precisely.
     
• They are straightforward for UK investors to invest in.
     
• And above all they will give you the opportunity to make substantial gains.

In your 3 FREE issues of MoneyWeek you’ll also find the very latest information on other hot sectors and investments, and updates on the tips in your free report.

Everything you need to be a successful investor and make money is
right here!

If you accept this invitation to sign up for MoneyWeek you will be joining a knowledge and wealth building programme that will automatically elevate you three, four or even five steps ahead of the crowd.

But don’t just take my word for it. Every day I receive complimentary messages from both private and professional investors. Here are just a few of them...

"MoneyWeek can help you, the private investor, like no other service"

MoneyWeek was created for one purpose – to seek out the most important financial information available, and tell our readers how to profit from it.

If you accept this invitation to join the MoneyWeek service:

• You’ll no longer have the hassle or expense of ploughing through mountains of newspapers, magazines and websites to find the information you need to secure your financial future.
     
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• You won’t need to panic when the next big share sell-off begins, or when the victims of the housing crash begin to pile up.
     
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• And you’ll have prized information that will make you one of the most informed, and potentially successful, investors around.

Those are big claims, I know. So big that you may be sceptical. And that’s why I’m so keen for you to apply for your 3 FREE issues of MoneyWeek so you can see what all the fuss is about yourself.

To find out how MoneyWeek can help your finances in 2010, click here now. Straight away I'll send you the first of your 3 FREE issues of MoneyWeek magazine and your copy of ‘THE MONEYWEEK 2010 PROFIT PORTFOLIO’.

The smart investor’s bible

MoneyWeek truly is the smart investor's bible.

It doesn’t matter how much money you have, or how experienced an investor you are. We provide you with all the financial news that really matters - when you
need it.

All in a format that’s great fun to read and easy to understand.

If you agree to join the select band of MoneyWeek readers you’ll find everything you need to be a successful investor and make money in the months and years to come.

You could save yourself and your family from losing £46,000 or more in the next stage of the property crisis.

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• Gold –We’ll show you how to profit from the modern-day gold rush.
     
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• How to keep Alistair Darling’s hands off your hard-earned wealth – Discover how you can pay less tax every single year... and much, much more.

And that’s not all…

As mentioned I’d also like to send you a unique investment report – ‘THE MONEYWEEK 2010 PROFIT PORTFOLIO’ – that could make a HUGE difference to your finances in the next 12 months.   

And I’d like to send it to you today for FREE…

Our best investment tips for 2010… and
YOU can claim it for FREE

The brief was simple…

I called a meeting with editor John Stepek and the rest of the MoneyWeek team and asked them to compile a report detailing their biggest and best investments for 2010.

And here it is; a unique, balanced portfolio packed with more than 20 separate investment tips spread around three different sectors - including the must-have ‘crisis proof’ play that every investor should have in their portfolio this year.

So in addition to sending you the next 3 issues of MoneyWeek magazine for FREE, we’ll also rush you a copy of our special report ‘The MoneyWeek 2010 Profit Portfolio’.

But if you still need convincing that MoneyWeek is for you, here’s a quick taste of what else you can expect to discover inside ‘The MoneyWeek 2010 Profit Portfolio’…

2010 PROFIT SECTOR #3:
Make gains of 226% from the biggest consumer boom the world has ever seen!

Everybody knows about the huge wealth of investment opportunities Asia has to offer.

We’ve all heard the stories…the tales of other peoples’ “legacy making” investments… so I won’t patronise you about the scale of the prospects available.

But the fact is… this boom is still in its infancy.

That’s right.

Millions of people will grow wealthier in the biggest consumer boom ever.

And investors who get in the right investments EARLY stand to make a phenomenal amount of money.

Of course, like any investment, there are risks – not everything will turn into a winner. There are some sectors that may promise a lot but deliver little – a considered investment pays more than a rushed one.

Well our analysis distils the market, sector by sector. We mark out what we see are the potential winners (and warn of several “poison chalice” sectors that many investors are now blindly pouring money into).

We identify what positions you should take up to best place yourself to profit from this astonishing period of expansion.

Like the tech metals setup that’s already made Moneyweek readers a COLLOSAL 226% gain!

And we detail exactly where the smart money will likely be made…

For example, we have details of a politically connected mining outfit that’s already sitting on a STAGGERING 1.5 trillion dollars worth of copper!

We think it could make you tremendous returns going forward.

It wouldn’t be fair on our existing subscribers to reveal what this play is here. But it couldn’t be easier for you to find out all about it.

All you have to do is claim 3 FREE issues of MoneyWeek to discover this investment in your FREE report ‘THE MONEYWEEK 2010 PROFIT PORTFOLIO’.

Plus you’ll find regular updates on this investment in your 3 FREE trial issues of MoneyWeek. It is so big and so important that barely a week goes by without one of our experts urging our readers to buy it.

Smart investors are already adding this play to their portfolio... in anticipation of a HUGE price surge in the next 12 months.  

Act quickly, and you can join in the fun too. But you can only do that if you claim your FREE report today.

Claim your 3 FREE issues of MoneyWeek and get your free copy of ‘THE MONEYWEEK 2010 PROFIT PORTFOLIO’ here.

Will 2010 end with you a great deal richer… or thousands of pounds poorer? You can make that decision today.

2010 isn’t going to be an easy time for the man on the street.

House prices are all set to collapse again. The banks are still in trouble. The FTSE looks dangerously overheated. Unemployment is a growing problem. The government can’t print any more money to get us out of the next financial crisis. 

But I couldn’t be more excited about the future for MoneyWeek’s subscribers, because there are still many investments you can make – IF you’re armed with the right information - that will make you money in this period of uncertainly.

Every week in MoneyWeek you’ll find fresh and exciting ways to profit… while uninformed investors struggle to stem their losses.  

Secure your 3 FREE issues of MoneyWeek and free report - ‘THE MONEYWEEK 2010 PROFIT PORTFOLIO’ - by clicking the link at the bottom of the page.

Read through the issues. Look at the tips, the advice, the columns, the sectors of the week. Work out what all the information could do for your finances and also your knowledge of the markets.

If you don’t think you’ll find it profitable... if you don’t think you’ll enjoy reading the magazine... if you don’t think you’ll become a more knowledgeable investor because of it... then you have no obligation to continue.

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The usual price of MoneyWeek is £127.50 for a full year (that’s 51 weekly issues).

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Remember – your 3 FREE MoneyWeek issues and copy of ‘THE MONEYWEEK 2010 PROFIT PORTFOLIO’ are yours to keep, whatever happens.

Click here to see what a difference MoneyWeek can make to your finances.

Yours sincerely,

Toby Bray
Publisher, MoneyWeek

PS: You’ve heard how you can enjoy MoneyWeek on a free 3-week trial and claim your free copy of ‘THE MONEYWEEK 2010 PROFIT PORTFOLIO’.

But there’s one other FREE benefit of joining the MoneyWeek service I haven’t told you about… join us today and every weekday you’ll receive our free investment email, Money Morning, containing all the day’s most important financial news, tips and views. 

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